The outlook
Brent crude is $107.03 a barrel (3 Nov 2026), +64.6% on a year. EIA's October 2026 outlook has it averaging $72.00 by Dec 2027.
Retail diesel, the fuel of road freight, is $6.292 a gallon, +67.7% on a year; regular gasoline is $4.153, +37.6%.
Wholesale gasoline has fallen further than the pump price has followed, so the pump price is more likely to fall than rise over the next three weeks.
EIA expects residential heating oil to average $5.426 a gallon over the 2026–27 heating season, +37.6% on the 2025–26 season.
Grocery prices are +1.8% on a year; ERS forecasts +2.3% for 2026 as a whole. That forecast implies an average for Oct–Dec 2026 of -0.1% against today, within -1.7 to 1.4: a range that spans both a rise and a fall.
Upstream, ERS's wholesale and farm-level forecasts point up for beef, butter, bread, flour, potatoes and tomatoes, and down for eggs, chicken, pork, milk and cheese.
| Item | Period | Outlook | Expected average vs today | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular gasoline | Next 3 weeks | Falling | $3.732 to $4.011 | now $4.153; wholesale plus its usual margin |
| Diesel | Next 3 weeks | Falling | $6.007 to $6.164 | now $6.292; wholesale plus its usual margin |
| Heating oil | Winter 2026–27 | Rising | +37.6% | EIA forecast vs the 2025–26 winter; lowest month Mar 2027 |
| Propane | Winter 2026–27 | Falling | -1.6% | EIA forecast vs the 2025–26 winter; lowest month Oct 2026 |
| Utility natural gas | Winter 2026–27 | Falling | -8.2% | EIA forecast vs the 2025–26 winter; lowest month Jan 2027 |
| Electricity | Winter 2026–27 | Rising | +2.8% | EIA forecast vs the 2025–26 winter; lowest month Dec 2026 |
| Eggs, grade A large | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -0.6% (-13.5 to 14.0) | Eggs · farm and wholesale falling |
| Ground beef, 100% beef | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.3% (-4.4 to 5.5) | Beef and veal · farm and wholesale rising |
| Chicken, whole | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.3% (-2.4 to 3.1) | Poultry · farm and wholesale falling |
| Chicken breast, boneless | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.3% (-2.4 to 3.1) | Poultry · farm and wholesale falling |
| Bacon, sliced | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -1.1% (-4.2 to 2.5) | Pork · farm and wholesale falling |
| Pork chops, center cut bone-in | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -1.1% (-4.2 to 2.5) | Pork · farm and wholesale falling |
| Milk, whole | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -0.6% (-2.2 to 1.4) | Dairy products · farm and wholesale falling |
| Cheddar cheese, natural | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -0.6% (-2.2 to 1.4) | Dairy products · farm and wholesale falling · buying ahead not favoured |
| Butter, salted grade AA | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.1% (-2.3 to 2.5) | Fats and oils · farm and wholesale rising · buying ahead favoured |
| Bread, white pan | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9) | Cereals and bakery products · farm and wholesale rising |
| Flour, white all-purpose | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9) | Cereals and bakery products · farm and wholesale rising · buying ahead favoured |
| Rice, white long grain uncooked | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9) | Cereals and bakery products |
| Coffee, 100% ground roast | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.5% (-1.4 to 2.4) | Nonalcoholic beverages |
| Sugar, white | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +1.1% (-1.2 to 3.0) | Sugar and sweets |
| Bananas | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.8% (-2.2 to 3.9) | Fresh fruits |
| Oranges, navel | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | +0.8% (-2.2 to 3.9) | Fresh fruits |
| Potatoes, white | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -0.2% (-4.0 to 3.6) | Fresh vegetables · farm and wholesale rising |
| Tomatoes, field grown | Oct–Dec 2026 | No settled direction | -0.2% (-4.0 to 3.6) | Fresh vegetables · farm and wholesale rising |
Motor fuel outlook
| Month | Regular gasoline | Diesel |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | $4.197 | $5.788 |
| Dec 2026 | $3.857 | $5.335 |
| Jan 2027 | $3.721 | $5.059 |
| Feb 2027 | $3.651 | $4.906 |
| Mar 2027 | $3.738 | $4.798 |
| Apr 2027 | $3.777 | $4.672 |
| May 2027 | $3.766 | $4.581 |
Home energy outlook
| Fuel | Winter 2025–26 | Winter 2026–27 | Change | EIA month by month, October to March |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil per gal | $3.943 | $5.426 | +37.6% | Oct $6.146 · Nov $5.792 · Dec $5.455 · Jan $5.256 · Feb $5.062 · Mar $4.845 |
| Propane, residential per gal | $2.558 | $2.518 | -1.6% | Oct $2.511 · Nov $2.514 · Dec $2.519 · Jan $2.523 · Feb $2.526 · Mar $2.517 |
| Natural gas, residential per Mcf | $15.60 | $14.32 | -8.2% | Oct $18.29 · Nov $14.44 · Dec $13.32 · Jan $12.71 · Feb $13.33 · Mar $13.81 |
| Electricity, residential ¢ per kWh | 17.8¢ | 18.3¢ | +2.8% | Oct 18.4¢ · Nov 18.3¢ · Dec 17.8¢ · Jan 18.1¢ · Feb 18.1¢ · Mar 18.9¢ |
Food outlook
Eggs, grade A largeNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -0.6% (-13.5 to 14.0)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Farm-level eggs: ERS 2026 -81.2% (-83.3 to -77.4) |
| Maize (corn), US No. 2 yellow: +21.0% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +9.0% on average, higher in 6 of 10 |
Ground beef, 100% beefNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.3% (-4.4 to 5.5)Farm and wholesalerisingDetailClose
| Wholesale beef: ERS 2026 +8.8% (4.8 to 13.5) |
| Farm-level cattle: ERS 2026 +5.8% (3.6 to 8.3) |
| Boxed beef cutout, Choice 600–900 lb: -1.0% over three months to 6 Nov 2026 (within its usual move) |
| Beef, Australia & NZ frozen: -12.0% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +0.1% on average, higher in 5 of 10 |
Chicken, wholeNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.3% (-2.4 to 3.1)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Wholesale poultry: ERS 2026 -6.3% (-7.9 to -4.6) |
| Maize (corn), US No. 2 yellow: +21.0% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +0.7% on average, higher in 4 of 10 |
Chicken breast, bonelessNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.3% (-2.4 to 3.1)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Wholesale poultry: ERS 2026 -6.3% (-7.9 to -4.6) |
| Maize (corn), US No. 2 yellow: +21.0% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +0.9% on average, higher in 5 of 10 |
Bacon, slicedNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -1.1% (-4.2 to 2.5)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Wholesale pork: ERS 2026 -10.2% (-12.5 to -7.6) |
| Pork belly primal: -59.9% over three months to 6 Nov 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -3.5% on average, higher in 2 of 10 |
Pork chops, center cut bone-inNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -1.1% (-4.2 to 2.5)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Wholesale pork: ERS 2026 -10.2% (-12.5 to -7.6) |
| Pork carcass cutout: -30.4% over three months to 6 Nov 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -3.8% on average, higher in 0 of 10 |
Milk, wholeNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -0.6% (-2.2 to 1.4)Farm and wholesalefallingDetailClose
| Wholesale dairy: ERS 2026 -1.2% (-2.5 to 0.1) |
| Farm-level milk: ERS 2026 -10.5% (-13.4 to -7.0) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +1.0% on average, higher in 7 of 10 |
Cheddar cheese, naturalNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -0.6% (-2.2 to 1.4)Farm and wholesalefallingBuy aheadnot favouredDetailClose
| Wholesale dairy: ERS 2026 -1.2% (-2.5 to 0.1) |
| Farm-level milk: ERS 2026 -10.5% (-13.4 to -7.0) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -1.8% on average, higher in 1 of 10 |
Butter, salted grade AANo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.1% (-2.3 to 2.5)Farm and wholesalerisingBuy aheadfavouredDetailClose
| Wholesale dairy: ERS 2026 -1.2% (-2.5 to 0.1) |
| Wholesale fats and oils: ERS 2026 +17.0% (15.2 to 18.9) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 8 years: -3.2% on average, higher in 2 of 8 |
Bread, white panNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9)Farm and wholesalerisingDetailClose
| Wholesale wheat flour: ERS 2026 +3.1% (1.4 to 5.0) |
| Farm-level wheat: ERS 2026 +22.6% (17.3 to 29.0) |
| Wheat, US No. 1 hard red winter: +23.6% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +1.0% on average, higher in 6 of 10 |
Flour, white all-purposeNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9)Farm and wholesalerisingBuy aheadfavouredDetailClose
| Wholesale wheat flour: ERS 2026 +3.1% (1.4 to 5.0) |
| Farm-level wheat: ERS 2026 +22.6% (17.3 to 29.0) |
| Wheat, US No. 1 hard red winter: +23.6% over three months to 1 Sep 2026 |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -4.3% on average, higher in 1 of 10 |
Rice, white long grain uncookedNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.4% (-1.2 to 1.9)Farm and wholesaleno ERS forecastDetailClose
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -1.0% on average, higher in 6 of 10 |
| H-α desk: no forward call published (no citable driver set) |
Coffee, 100% ground roastNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.5% (-1.4 to 2.4)Farm and wholesaleno ERS forecastDetailClose
| Sep to Dec in the past 8 years: +1.4% on average, higher in 5 of 8 |
| H-α desk: no-change baseline for the world price (no driver model yet) |
Sugar, whiteNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +1.1% (-1.2 to 3.0)Farm and wholesaleno ERS forecastDetailClose
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -2.0% on average, higher in 3 of 10 |
| H-α desk: no-change baseline for the world price (no driver model yet) |
BananasNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.8% (-2.2 to 3.9)Farm and wholesaleno ERS forecastDetailClose
| Farm-level fruits: ERS 2026 -2.1% (-5.0 to 1.2) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +0.3% on average, higher in 5 of 10 |
Oranges, navelNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: +0.8% (-2.2 to 3.9)Farm and wholesaleno ERS forecastDetailClose
| Farm-level fruits: ERS 2026 -2.1% (-5.0 to 1.2) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 8 years: -10.3% on average, higher in 0 of 8 |
Potatoes, whiteNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -0.2% (-4.0 to 3.6)Farm and wholesalerisingDetailClose
| Farm-level vegetables: ERS 2026 +21.2% (14.1 to 30.6) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: -5.6% on average, higher in 0 of 10 |
Tomatoes, field grownNo settled directionOct–Dec 2026: -0.2% (-4.0 to 3.6)Farm and wholesalerisingDetailClose
| Farm-level vegetables: ERS 2026 +21.2% (14.1 to 30.6) |
| Sep to Dec in the past 10 years: +8.9% on average, higher in 9 of 10 |
Your household
Registered households are kept on the list for this page as it develops. Registration stores the answers above with the email address and ZIP code below. Individual answers are not published; H-α uses them to personalise this page and to compile aggregate, anonymised statistics. A link is sent to the email address; a registration, or a change to one, takes effect when that link is opened. The email also gives the address for deleting a registration.
A confirmed household can sign in on any device, the app included, with a six-digit code sent to its email; the answers held for it then open here, and a change made while signed in is saved at once.
Sent only when one of these changes: the three-week pump price call changes direction; ERS publishes a new Food Price Outlook (monthly); EIA publishes a new Short-Term Energy Outlook (monthly); EIA's heating oil and propane survey resumes (October).
Runway
Motor fuel prices today
| Area | Regular | 4 weeks | 52 weeks | Diesel | 52 weeks | Survey week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $4.153 | -4.6% | +37.6% | $6.292 | +67.7% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| New England (PADD 1A) | $4.145 | -4.6% | +41.4% | $6.416 | +63.0% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) | $4.232 | -3.0% | +38.3% | $6.486 | +66.0% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) | $3.695 | -6.7% | +30.9% | $5.814 | +58.1% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Midwest (PADD 2) | $4.102 | -0.2% | +45.0% | $6.402 | +69.7% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | $3.636 | -7.0% | +44.8% | $5.912 | +75.2% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) | $4.213 | -4.6% | +43.4% | $6.445 | +75.3% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| West Coast except California (PADD 5) | $4.771 | -6.7% | +25.9% | $6.575 | +59.5% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| California | $5.748 | -7.7% | +29.6% | $8.076 | +63.7% | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Colorado | $4.068 | +1.2% | +50.1% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Florida | $3.791 | -4.5% | +30.3% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Massachusetts | $4.104 | -4.6% | +40.9% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Minnesota | $4.017 | -4.4% | +39.3% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| New York | $4.217 | -3.7% | +40.4% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Ohio | $4.090 | +6.8% | +41.0% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Texas | $3.578 | -7.6% | +45.1% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Washington | $5.095 | -6.1% | +22.1% | — | — | 2 Nov 2026 |
Home energy prices today
| BLS region | Electricity per kWh | 12 months | Utility gas per therm | 12 months | Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US city average | 19.6¢ | +4.3% | $1.70 | +5.4% | Sep 2026 |
| Northeast | 26.6¢ | +4.7% | $1.83 | +10.3% | Sep 2026 |
| Midwest | 19.7¢ | +9.4% | $1.25 | +1.5% | Sep 2026 |
| South | 16.3¢ | +0.6% | $2.09 | +7.8% | Sep 2026 |
| West | 22.8¢ | +5.6% | $1.96 | -1.1% | Sep 2026 |
| Area | Heating oil per gallon | Propane per gallon | Survey week |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $6.138 | $2.820 | 2 Nov 2026 |
| New England | $6.073 | $3.978 | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Central Atlantic | $6.206 | $3.707 | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Lower Atlantic | $5.967 | $3.792 | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Midwest | $6.183 | $2.298 | 2 Nov 2026 |
Upstream markets
| Market | Latest | Since previous | 12 months | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy, wholesale | |||||
| Crude oil, WTI Cushing | $99.64 per barrel | -0.42% | +62.3% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Crude oil, Brent | $107.03 per barrel | -0.34% | +64.6% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Gasoline, NY Harbor conventional regular | $2.728 per gallon | +2.98% | +41.7% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Gasoline, Gulf Coast conventional regular | $2.903 per gallon | +1.61% | +47.4% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Diesel (ULSD), NY Harbor | $4.823 per gallon | +3.12% | +93.9% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Diesel (ULSD), Gulf Coast | $4.525 per gallon | +2.91% | +92.1% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Heating oil No. 2, NY Harbor | $4.470 per gallon | +3.42% | +90.9% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Natural gas, Henry Hub | $2.63 per MMBtu | +3.54% | -21.5% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Propane, Mont Belvieu | $1.195 per gallon | -1.16% | +96.5% | 3 Nov 2026 | EIA spot prices |
| Meat, wholesale | |||||
| Boxed beef cutout, Choice 600–900 lb | $360.79 per cwt | -0.21% | -4.1% | 6 Nov 2026 | USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting |
| Boxed beef cutout, Select 600–900 lb | $353.56 per cwt | +0.35% | -2.1% | 6 Nov 2026 | USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting |
| Pork carcass cutout | $70.65 per cwt | +2.41% | -28.6% | 6 Nov 2026 | USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting |
| Pork belly primal | $66.34 per cwt | +4.05% | -53.6% | 6 Nov 2026 | USDA AMS Livestock Mandatory Reporting |
| Grain and beef, world | |||||
| Wheat, US No. 1 hard red winter | $246.85 per tonne | +3.78% | +59.1% | Sep 2026 | IMF Primary Commodity Prices |
| Maize (corn), US No. 2 yellow | $236.92 per tonne | +7.05% | +20.8% | Sep 2026 | IMF Primary Commodity Prices |
| Beef, Australia & NZ frozen | 300.6¢ per lb | -4.34% | -3.0% | Sep 2026 | IMF Primary Commodity Prices |
| Food and farm inputs, H-α marks | |||||
| Coffee, arabica (other milds) | $7,260 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Sugar, US domestic | $850 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Sugar, world (ISA) | $410 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Rice, Thai 5% FOB Bangkok | $482 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Soybean meal, 48% FOB Rotterdam | $447 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Urea, FOB Middle East | $420 per tonne | — | — | Oct 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| DAP fertilizer, FOB US Gulf | $801 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Coconut oil, CIF Rotterdam | $2,029 per tonne | — | — | Oct 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| Olive oil, extra virgin, Spain | €324.00 per 100 kg | — | — | 25 Oct 2026 | European Commission agri-food data portal |
| Groundnuts | $1,600 per tonne | — | — | Sep 2026 | World Bank Pink Sheet |
